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Fourth Quarter Preview: What to Expect for the End of 2020

Greg Lavelle • Sep 15, 2020

It took just under five months for it to happen. On August 17th, the S&P 500 closed at 3389.78—an all-time record. That record is also significant because it means the index officially recouped all losses from the downturn that happened in March.1
 
This year has been a rollercoaster ride for investors. The S&P 500 dropped 33.92% from February 19 to March 23 as the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. Since March 23, the index has increased 51.51%, triggering a new bull market.2
 
However, a sharp increase in the stock market doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is out of the woods. In fact, other metrics would indicate that the economy is still struggling. In the second quarter, gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 32.9%, the largest quarterly contraction on record. That contraction is more than three times the previous record—a 10% contraction in 1958.3
 
Also, not all sectors of the stock market have participated in the recovery. The increase over the last five months has been fueled by growth in the Information Technology (IT) and Consumer Discretionary sectors, each of which are up more than 23% year-to-date. However, other sectors, particularly Financials and Energy, are negative on the year. In fact, of the 11 S&P 500 Sectors, five are still negative on the year.4
 
The 4th Quarter is historically the best quarter for S&P 500 performance, with the index up an average of 3.51% from October through December over the past 30 years.5 However, 2020 is not like other years. There are factors and risks that could threaten the market’s recovery. Below are a couple things to watch as the year comes to a close:

Election

We’re only a couple months away from the election, as if 2020 needed more uncertainty. Everyone has their own preferred candidate. However, some investment managers are saying the real risk isn’t one of the candidates winning, it’s an unclear outcome.
 
Bridgewater Associates, which manages more than $140 billion, recently told clients the real risk is if there is “material concern over the legitimacy of the process.” Analysis of recent options transactions show that many investors are taking protective stances through January 2021, possibly an indication they are concerned about post-election volatility.6
 
However, UBS notes that post-election volatility is often short-lived. They point to the most recent example of an election with an unclear winner—the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush. During that time, the S&P 500 fell around 6% in the weeks after the election as litigation mounted. However, those losses were erased as soon as the election reached resolution.7

COVID

Of course, the other major risk to the economy and financial markets in the fourth quarter is developments related to COVID. The pandemic is now in its seventh month. As of mid-August, the death toll in the United States exceeded 168,000, with more than 5 million confirmed cases.8
 
The development of a vaccine in the fourth quarter could deliver a boost to the economy. The government has implemented Operation Warp Speed, an initiative to deliver 300 million vaccines by January. Moderna has a vaccine in phase 3 trials, but it is uncertain whether the company will be able to meet the government’s target date.8
 
Ready to protect your portfolio from fourth quarter uncertainty? Let’s talk about it. Contact us today at Retirement Advisers.Net. We can analyze your needs and goals and implement a plan. Let’s connect soon and start the conversation.

1 https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
2 https://www.google.com/search?q=INDEXSP:.INX&tbm=fin&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRowi3w8sc9YSntSWtOXmNU5eIKzsgvd80rySypFBLnYoOyeKW4uTj1c_UNDM0qi4t5FrHyePq5uEYEB1jpefpFAAAU6wGESAAAAA#scso=_iyc9X5L9Eq6E9PwPt8m4mAM1:0
3 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever
4 https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
5 https://stockanalysis.com/average-monthly-stock-returns/
6 https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2020-election-wall-street-stock-market
7 https://fortune.com/2020/08/18/trump-biden-stock-market-2020-election-contested-results-what-could-happen-investors/
8 https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/19/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/
 
Licensed Insurance Professional. This information is designed to provide a general overview with regard to the subject matter covered and is not state specific. The authors, publisher and host are not providing legal, accounting or specific advice for your situation. By providing your information, you give consent to be contacted about the possible sale of an insurance or annuity product. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting insurance professional. The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change at any time. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, presenting insurance professional makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. This material has been prepared for informational and educational purposes only. It is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax or investment advice. This information has been provided by a Licensed Insurance Professional and is not sponsored or endorsed by the Social Security Administration or any government agency. 20365 – 2020/8/20

Life Insurance for Different Life Stages: Tailoring Your Policy to Your Needs

16 Apr, 2024
Life insurance isn't one-size-fits-all. Just as your life evolves over time, so too should your insurance coverage. Whether you're starting your career, raising a family, or enjoying retirement, understanding how to tailor your life insurance policy to your current life stage is essential for ensuring adequate protection for you and your loved ones. Starting Out: Young Professionals As a young professional just starting out in your career, life insurance might not be at the top of your priority list. However, this is the ideal time to secure coverage, as premiums are typically lower when you're young and healthy. A term life insurance policy can provide affordable protection for your loved ones in the event of your untimely passing while also allowing flexibility to upgrade to permanent coverage later on. Growing Family: Parents and Homeowners For parents and homeowners, life insurance becomes even more crucial. You want to ensure your family is financially secure and able to maintain their standard of living if something were to happen to you. Consider a combination of term and permanent life insurance to cover immediate expenses, such as mortgage payments and childcare costs, as well as long-term financial needs like college tuition and inheritance planning. Midlife Milestones: Empty Nesters and Career Climbers As your children grow up and become financially independent, your insurance needs may shift. You might choose to adjust your coverage to reflect your changing financial obligations and goals. This could mean reducing coverage amounts or transitioning to a policy with cash value accumulation features, such as whole life insurance, to supplement retirement savings and leave a legacy for your heirs. Retirement: Golden Years and Legacy Planning In retirement, life insurance can still play a valuable role in your financial plan. While your need for income replacement may decrease, you may still want coverage to cover final expenses, estate taxes, or leave a financial legacy for your loved ones. An insurance policy with guaranteed death benefits, such as universal life insurance, can provide peace of mind and help protect your assets for future generations. Review and Adjust Regularly Regardless of your life stage, it's essential to review your life insurance coverage regularly to ensure it continues to meet your needs. Major life events, such as marriage, divorce, birth of a child, or career changes, may warrant updates to your policy. Working with a trusted life insurance broker can help you incorporate these changes into your long-term plans and make informed decisions about your coverage. Life insurance is a vital component of your financial plan at every stage of life. Meet with us now and regularly in the future so that we can help you evaluate and adjust your life insurance policy to ensure that it truly meets your needs.

How to Safeguard Against an IRS Audit

08 Apr, 2024
Receiving a notice from the IRS for an audit can be a nerve-wracking experience. The time, effort, and potential financial consequences make it a situation you'd rather avoid. Fortunately, many audits stem from avoidable errors. Here's how you can avoid the five most common audit triggers and keep your tax returns in the clear. Ensure You Report All Income Income discrepancies are a major red flag for the IRS. While taxes are typically withheld from regular wages, other sources of income, like business earnings or capital gains, may not have taxes automatically deducted. Be vigilant in accurately reporting all sources of income, whether you receive a 1099 form or not. Document and report any non-wage income meticulously to prevent underreporting. Explain Significant Income Fluctuations Significant fluctuations in income from year to year can draw the IRS's attention. If your income varies widely, provide explanations or notes with your tax filings. Whether it's due to changes in business circumstances or other factors, clarifying these fluctuations can help prevent misunderstandings. Document Business Losses Carefully While it's common for businesses to experience losses, chronic or substantial losses can raise eyebrows at the IRS. Keep detailed records of your business finances, especially in the early years. Additionally, if you operate a sole proprietorship, ensure your business activities are distinguishable from hobbies to justify loss deductions. Support Your Deductions Certain deductions, such as large charitable contributions or home office expenses, may attract scrutiny. Be prepared to provide supporting documentation for all deductions claimed on your tax return. Thorough records can help substantiate your deductions and alleviate concerns during an audit. Accurately Value Assets For estate tax returns, undervalued assets are a common trigger for audits. When valuing assets without a public market price, seek multiple appraisals from qualified professionals. Having multiple valuations can strengthen your position and minimize the risk of an audit. Remember, even if you enlist professional help for your taxes, the responsibility for accuracy ultimately lies with you. Review your tax returns carefully before signing them to ensure everything is in order. Understanding the Different Types of Audits IRS audits come in three main varieties, each with its own level of intensity. Correspondence Audit. Conducted through the mail, this audit is often triggered by missing information or minor discrepancies. Office Audit. Requires a visit to an IRS office, typically for more complex tax returns or multiple disputed items. Field Audit. The most comprehensive type, conducted in person at your home or business, involves a thorough examination of your return. Regardless of the type, the IRS will provide a written request for specific documents beforehand. By being proactive and thorough in your tax reporting, you can minimize the risk of an audit and ensure a smoother process if one does occur.
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